Saturday, May 26, 2012

Spain Now Circles the Drain

Everyone seems to be saying that if Greece falls they are afraid that Spain and Italy will be next.  In reality Spain is circling the drain because of their own home-grown mess with a real estate bubble.

Yes, Greece failing in the Euro will no doubt get people focused on the entire banking system...and Spain's banks are a problem.  So expect to see the bank runs start to hit Spain and Italy.  It is your classic loss of confidence.

What really has people worried is contagion: that if Greece goes then so will Italy and or Spain and those are problems that are not so easy to shrug off. However, it’s becoming a little clearer that contagion is not really Spain’s problem. It’s not that Greece potentially leaving is leading to people pulling their money out of Spain. Rather, Spain’s problems are home grown and are really only now becoming apparent. A little of Warren Buffett’s point that it’s only when the tide goes out that you can see who has been swimming naked.

All of which leads to an uncomfortable political truth. What’s happening in Spain is not contagion, therefore it is not a sufficient solution to provide a financial firewall through the ECB or some such. The place is going bust because of its own actions, not as a result of some infection from Greece. So a solution to the Greek problems, whichever way that works out, will not become a solution to Spain’s problems. And it’s very difficult from here in Europe to see anyone acknowledging that fact.

Here;  http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/05/26/now-spain-circles-the-drain/

It certainly appears that God may be shaking the false god of Mammon...and his followers seem to be getting more jittery every day. 

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