Friday, October 4, 2013

Is Dollar Collapsing?...or is it Gold That's Collapsing?

On the one hand we have many analysts saying that the massive U.S. money printing scheme will collapse confidence in the US dollar....so BUY GOLD AND SILVER!  They say that massive inflation is a forgone conclusion, now it's just a matter of determining how massively awful it will be?

So obviously something has to give. On the menu will be hyper-taxation, take-your-breath-away inflation, or nation-destroying hyperinflation. Consider: As the current Kakistocracy in Washington continues to embrace out-of-control spending and the dollar-debt numbers continue to skyrocket, the obligations for America to manage its debt (never mind, actually paying it back) will become increasingly onerous and more difficult with each passing year. Even now...right now, it has become impossible for the US to grow itself back to sustainable recovery and solvency. Raising taxes is a fool's game, but Washington will do it and that will only make matters worse.  National solvency in America is a thing of the past.

For the sake of argument, let us consider what would happen if America chose to default on its massive debt; although the implications are too terrible to really contemplate. As America is already the largest debtor nation on the planet the problems would begin immediately. Within hours of announcing debt default, the worth of the US dollar would plummet. Within days, no one would trade with America and no one would lend the US a dime. Around the world there would be a virtual stampede to dump US dollars, accelerating the collapse of dollar value. Even our current level of post 2008 reduced consumption would slow to a trickle and then cease entirely as an economic depression that would begin in America before reverberating around the world like a tidal wave. The debt defaults that wreaked havoc upon Argentina and Zimbabwe would be small spuds compared to what would happen in America - massive shortages of all the essentials of life. Within a week there would be chaos, riots, and military law. And OBVIOUSLY...the current brand of in-country fiat currency (US dollar) would no longer function as a store of value in the face of such punishing systemic instability. If you had matches you might want to use your Benjamin's to start a cooking fire in a nearby park. 
 

So if default is out of the question (and it truly is), we must face up to the fact that we will have to suffer through inflation. With hard work and determination and a change of direction in Washington, we will prevail. We can beat inflation. We will be dented, but not broken. But what if our inflationary period jumps the fence and morphs into hyperinflation?
 
If the only point left to discuss is the severity of the pending bout of inflation (and the  collapse of the US dollar) through either severe inflation or hyperinflation, why are you still holding on to your stock of US dollars? The ideal would be to hold fully half of your liquid assets in gold and silver coins. An inflationary period will be part of our, so if your only concession to this looming challenge is to hold gold and silver, I guess that is better than nothing.
 
 
Yes!!  That makes perfect sense!!
 
But wait...now we have another team of analysts saying, "Yes, no doubt America is in trouble, BUT the dollar will remain strong and GOLD WILL PLUMMET."
 
They go on to tell us that when gold plummets SO WILL THE STOCK AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS.
 
Despite the yellow metal’s (gold) unceremonious and painful meltdown since October 2012, gold bugs continue to forecast a price of $5,000 and a collapse of the U.S. dollar to zero.
How could they be so stubborn AND wrong?
Because they’re basing their views on ideology and the last economic war, the fight against inflation in the 1970s.
They’re completely ignoring all the facts, especially the one that the economic war we’re fighting now is about deflation and debt deleveraging (as it was in the 1930s).
So let’s set the record straight. Here are the seven reasons gold will continue to sink like a mafia boss with cement shoes in the river… and why the dollar will continue its resurgence like a rising hot air balloon.

Gold is an inflationary hedge. Gold bugs have assumed that the Fed’s unprecedented money printing, Quantitative Easing (QE) and stimulus programs would lead to inflation and, ultimately, hyperinflation.

Mark my words: That’s not going to happen!

Gold collapsed in the second quarter of 2013 when our QE3 ramp up and Japan’s off-the-charts QE saw inflation rates fall from around 2% to as low as 1%.

Leveraged hedge funds have been dumping gold ever since then to meet margin calls.

The first principle to understand here is that the U.S. created more debt than any other country or region in the world during the great boom from 1983 to 2007. Total debt, private and government, grew at 2.54 times GDP for 25 years. Private debt grew even faster at 2.7 times GDP.

Debt is how we create or print money. The Fed’s money-printing programs are just a sideshow we see during emergencies like World War II and the recent great recession.

$3 trillion in quantitative easing is a drop in the ocean when compared to the $42 trillion in private debt and the $17 trillion (and growing) of government debt in the U.S.

When we deleverage or write off debt, money is destroyed. That makes the U.S. dollar scarce and, therefore, more valuable.

The truth is that we debased the U.S. dollar in the boom with unprecedented debt creation. Compared to our trading partners, the dollar declined 58% from 1985 into early 2008.

It’s been rising ever since, and it surged 27% in the financial crisis of late 2008 while gold was down 33% and silver was down 50%. Holy crap!

Yes, the gold bugs were wrong. Gold didn’t protect them or you from a deflationary crisis. The U.S. dollar did the protecting.

(this was an email so I don't have a link to attach)

SO NOW WHAT ARE WE SUPPOSED TO THINK??  Is it gold that will save us or the USA's printed dollars??  We have some very smart people telling us two very opposite things!

"I will confound your wise men, I will frustrate your intelligent men," says The Lord.

Boy...isn't that the truth...
 
 

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