Friday, May 8, 2015

What is Deflation and Why is it Bad?

I'm quite sure that all of my readers know what inflation is and if asked, could probably write a paragraph explaining it....but what about deflation?  Can we write a paragraph on what that is?

If rising prices are seen as 'bad', then falling prices must be seen as 'good'...right?

Nope.  Deflation is something that the "magic money men" fear even more than inflation.

U.S. NOT IMMUNE FROM DEFLATION RISK
• All of the good economic news aside, the U.S. is still not safely clear of deflation risk as slow
recovery from a debt-driven recession continues
• A risk-averse Fed has little reason to raise short-term rates any time soon. We reiterate our
long-standing view of “lower for longer”
• In fixed income, we prefer the more credit-sensitive segments of the market, including high-yield,
where active management can add value
• As markets become increasingly volatile, a focus on global diversification may help protect
investor portfolios

Dominant economic trends in early 2015 — weak GDP growth in developed and emerging markets, plunging oil prices and a muscular dollar — all fit into the nervous global conversation about deflation risk and what it might mean for U.S. investors. 

Deflation risk remains very real in Europe. Consumer prices shrank in December for the first time in more than five years, and more contraction followed in early 2015. Lower energy costs are in part to blame, but not counting oil and food, inflation in the eurozone was still at a record low in January. 

Deflation is opposite of inflation, so how can it be bad? 
Most of us understand the harm that income-eroding inflation can cause, but the potential damage from deflation is less intuitive. After all, if inflation is bad, and deflation is the opposite of inflation, deflation by definition should be good, right? Why wouldn’t we want products and services to be cheaper? 

When prices are falling, consumption should increase because everyone now has more purchasing power. In a deflationary environment, however, consumption actually decreases. That’s because consumers look at today’s price tags, and notice they are lower than yesterday’s. The question then becomes, “Why should I spend today if I can get an even better deal tomorrow?"

Across an entire economy, suppressed spending can lead to a destructive downward spiral that is hard to reverse. Lower consumption leads to lower production, lower hiring rates, lower wages, lower profitability and lower capital expenditures. Governments take in less tax revenue, which can cut public spending and possibly jobs as well. Declining sales and earnings can drive down dividends and stock prices, which further curtails consumption. Real estate values are vulnerable as well. For bond investors, deflation tends to drive up prices in the near time, but coupons fall over time due to stimulative monetary policy. 

It’s not certain that the massive quantitative easing program by the European Central Bank will be enough to reverse deflationary momentum in the eurozone economy. And even if QE provides a short-term reprieve, Europe still has profound structural problems to address, including persistent fiscal deficits, inflexible labor markets and excessive government regulation. 

Here;  http://pages.advisorusaa.com/rs/usaa/images/Deflation-Risk-FNL-218086%20-%200415-Removed-Tag.pdf?mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRonvqjJZKXonjHpfsX54uQrWLHr08Yy0EZ5VunJEUWy2YECSNQ%2FcOedCQkZHblFnVsJSq2xUbcNoqEI

So the short answer of why deflation is bad for consumer driven, debt prone societies is because people will put off spending money today if they believe that the TV, boat, or gas grill they want today will be cheaper in 30 days!  They will just wait a while.  If you take that decision times MILLIONS....the whole economy can start to fold up and the 'magic money men' at the Federal Reserve have very few tools in their tool belt to combat it.  What are they going to do to entice people to buy it today?  Lower interest rates below 0% and force Best Buy to actually PAY YOU interest if you buy it today??

Wow!  Europe might really be in a pickle!  Just imagine if their economy starts to implode and the Euro Zone and Euro currency start to tumble....then folks will look to America as the last big safe-haven to hold their wealth!  So they pour their money into U.S. holdings....only to find out that America is $18 trillion in debt, our economy has created millions of part time, low paying jobs, we have $50 trillion of unfunded liabilities on the horizon and we are rejecting Christ at an astonishing level.

Sounds like a perfect recipe for the Prince of the Earth to destroy the current global economic system so it can be replaced with ONE NEW SYSTEM!  A system that implements all the great technologies we currently have....like bar codes, online banks and 100% completely cashless!


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