Why a Russian Financial Analyst Was Totally Wrong About Russian Invasion

 I believe this is a very interesting article because it's written by a Russian dude who has a lot of insight into Ukraine and Belarus.  Just a few weeks ago he had written an article explaining why Russia was NOT going to invade Ukraine.  And now this article is titled WAR IN UKRAINE:  WHY I WAS BLINDSIDED.

On February 24th the world changed. What I thought could never happen has happened. Russia declared war on Ukraine.

I have not felt this level of sadness in years. I feel like someone close to me died. But I am sitting in my comfortable armchair, with my headphones on, drinking coffee as I write, while somewhere in Ukraine, people just like me are being bombed by Russian artillery. They went from going to Starbucks, shopping, and sharing carefree meals with their families to hiding in subway stations at the first sound of the siren. Hundreds of thousands have been forced to flee to other parts of the country or to Poland.

Ukraine is all I can think about. I don’t want to write about investing. For the last few days, I’ve been writing four, five hours a day. This is my way of dealing with this tragedy and stress. Some people drink, some take up smoking, I write.

Eight days before Russia invaded Ukraine, I wrote an article saying there would be no war. I was certain of it. I was wrong. How could I get it so wrong? The more you knew about the situation, the more likely you were to get it wrong.

Let me take you back to my childhood in Russia. I and everyone around me hated the Nazis with every ounce of our souls. Every other movie made in the Soviet Union was about WWII. A lot of those movies were in black and white. I am not referring just to the color of the film but to the lack of ambiguity of the message: Without provocation, the Nazis invaded the Soviet Union. Russians were good, courageous, honest, peaceful people. Germans were heartless, evil, soulless invaders that slaughtered innocent Russians. Russians were good. Germans were bad.

Reminders about WWII were not just in the movies. We studied the horrors of WWII in school, and then there was the May 9th celebration of Victory Day, when Germany surrendered, on May 9, 1945. Unlike Independence Day in the US, which is just an excuse for BBQ and to sell couches at a 30% discount, May 9th was a day that was truly dear to everyone. We all went out onto the streets to celebrate it. We all knew someone who had fought or died in WWII, and most of our parents had lived through its horrors. WWII is not just an entry in a history book for Russians; its memories and lessons are deeply embedded in Russian culture.

This is the first reason why war with democratic Ukraine seemed unfathomable. Even after it happened, my mind still didn’t want to recognize that at 4 AM – the same hour that Germany attacked the Soviet Union in June, 1941 – Russia invaded and started to bomb Ukraine. This makes Russia just like Nazi Germany – behavior that we despised all our lives.

The Soviet Union was a melting pot. Take my family for example. Three quarters of my ancestors, including my mother, were born in Vitebsk, a small town in Belarus. My father’s father was born in Pavlograd, a city in Ukraine – he was a lieutenant colonel who fought in WWII in the Soviet army. My father was born in Moscow. I was born in Saratov, a city on the Volga River to which my mother’s family evacuated during WWII. From the time I was three months old until I was 18, we lived in Murmansk, in far northwestern Russia. Was I Russian, Ukrainian or Belarusian? Add the fact that I am Jewish to the mix to confuse things a bit more. (I posed this question in the past and tried to answer it here). Most importantly, I am not an exception, but the rule (except for the being Jewish part).

Here;  War in Ukraine: Why I Was Blindsided, Part 1 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives

It's almost like something is dragging Putin around because he has to know this is going to decimate his economy but he seems unable to stop himself!

‘This is what the Sovereign Lord says: I am against you, Gog, chief prince of[b] Meshek and Tubal. 4 I will turn you around, put hooks in your jaws and bring you out with your whole army—your horses, your horsemen fully armed, and a great horde with large and small shields, all of them brandishing their swords.  Ezekiel 38