Monday, February 24, 2020

China Nearing Financial Armageddon

What happens to a country where 450,000,000 are quarantined and not allowed to leave their homes?  Can they go to work and make widgets that day?  Nope.  Can they go the store and buy blenders and iPads?  Nope.  Can they go sign the papers for a new auto loan and drive away in a new car?  Nope.

So that sounds like it could be really, really bad for their economy if no one can buy or sell anything?

Yep.

"It Will Be Really, Really Bad": China Faces Financial Armageddon With 85% Of Businesses Set To Run Out Of Cash In 3 Months

For the past two weeks, even as the market took delight in China's doctored and fabricated numbers showing the coronavirus spread was "slowing", we warned again and again that not only was this not the case (which recent data out of South Korea, Japan and now Italy has confirmed), but that for all its assertions to the contrary, China's workers simply refused to go back to work (even with FoxConn offering its workers extra bonuses just to return to the factory) and as a result the domestic economy had ground to a halt as we described in:

China Has Ground To A Halt: "On The Ground" Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario
China Is Disintegrating: Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero
Terrifying Charts Show China's Economy Remains Completely Paralyzed

Unfortunately, it's not getting any better as the latest high frequency updates out of China demonstrate: 

Also unfortunately, it is getting worse, because as we explained several weeks ago, China is now fighting against time to reboot its economy, and the longer the paralysis continues, the more dire the outcome for both China's banks and local companies. And since it is no longer just "scaremongering" by "conspiracy blogs", but rather conventional wisdom that China may implode, here is a summary of how the narrative that "it will all be over by mid-March" is dramatically changing.

Let's start with Chinese businesses: while China's giant state-owned SOEs will likely have enough of a liquidity lifeblood to last them for 2-3 quarters, it is the country's small businesses that are facing a head on collision with an iceberg, because according to the Nikkei, over 85% of small businesses - which employ 80% of China's population - expect to run out of cash within three months, and a third expect the cash to be all gone within a month.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/it-will-be-really-really-bad-china-faces-financial-armageddon-85-businesses-set-run-out

"Wow Dennis!  I'm sure glad that is happening in China and not America!"

Agreed.

But what would happen if China is forced to cash in the $trillion worth of US Government bonds that it holds to stop a melt down of their own banks?  What happens if they can't afford to buy some of the $trillion worth of US Government Bonds that we are going sell in order to finance America's annual deficit?

This could end up being catastrophic for America which could mean it could end up catastrophic for the rest of the world which relies on the US Dollar being the ONLY reserve currency in the world.

Let's just remember that the entire global financial system NEEDS TO MELTDOWN in order for the Antichrist to build it back up and set up his new cashless system that requires a mark in order to buy or sell anything.

Since we believe this MIGHT happen AFTER the rapture of the church...in fact the rapture MIGHT be the final trigger that causes the meltdown...could this be one other converging sign that the trumpet could blow really soon and Jesus calls all His followers into the clouds?

"But you, brothers, are NOT in darkness that this day should surprise you like a thief."-1 Thessalonians

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