Of course no one really has a clue what's coming for the financial markets. It could be mayhem or stocks could keep climbing if Trump gets re-elected. Jeremy Grantham has been pretty good about calling some of the previous bubbles and we saw this headline and thought it added to the confusion of the day.
Jeremy Grantham has made a science of studying asset bubbles, correctly predicting the path of the Japanese, dot-com and housing overvaluations. Today’s bubble in U.S. equities is unlike any other, he says, but it will burst in months, if not weeks.
“We are in a bubble,” Grantham said, “but it is unlike any other.” The excessive bubbles of history took a great economic situation and extrapolated it into the future, based on an assumption that today’s perfect conditions will continue.
But doing that today leads to the opposite of a bubble, Grantham said, given that P/E ratios are at the highest 15% of their historical values despite the dismal economy.
Everything is overpriced, he said, but there is no way to say when they will peak. To call that peak, it is useful to look for signs of “crazy” behavior.
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