Lots of People are Going to Die During the Great Tribulation
A long-time reader recently did the math by following scripture as it reports what will happen during the Great Tribulation.
I've posted his findings below.
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Estimated Death Toll During the Tribulation
Let’s break down the estimated death toll over the 7-year Tribulation using a literal reading of Revelation, the prophets, and known population baselines. All figures assume a pre-Tribulation rapture has already removed the true Church (a small but unknown number). For modeling purposes, we’ll round the pre-rapture world population to 8 billion.
I. First Major Death Wave – Fourth Seal (Revelation 6:8)
“And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.”
¼ of humanity dies:
• 8 billion × 0.25 = 2 billion deaths
• This occurs early in the Tribulation, likely through war, famine, plague, and social collapse
• Cumulative death toll at this point: 2 billion
II. Second Major Death Wave – Sixth Trumpet (Revelation 9:15–18)
“…to slay the third part of men.”
This follows the initial ¼ who have already perished.
⅓ of the remaining 6 billion:
• 6 billion × 0.33 = 2 billion more deaths
• Likely caused by supernatural entities, war, or demonic judgments
• Cumulative death toll: 4 billion
By this point (Revelation 9), half of the global population is gone.
III. Bowl Judgments – Final Collapse (Revelation 16)
While exact numbers aren’t given, the plagues are catastrophic:
• Painful sores (Rev 16:2)
• Rivers turned to blood (Rev 16:4)
• Scorching global heat (Rev 16:8)
• Total darkness (Rev 16:10)
• Global earthquake and city collapse (Rev 16:18–19)
• 100-pound hailstones (Rev 16:21)
These conditions are un-survivable for vast regions. A conservative estimate:
• 1 to 2 billion additional deaths
• Total death toll: 5 to 6 billion
IV. Armageddon – Final Battle (Revelation 19:17–21)
“…the rest were slain with the sword that came out of the mouth of Him who sat on the horse.”
All remaining unbelieving military forces are killed at Christ’s return.
• Possibly 200 to 500 million deaths, depending on the scale of the global coalition
V. The Goats – Final Separation (Matthew 25:31–46)
All surviving Gentiles are judged at Christ’s return.
The “goats”—those who rejected Christ and persecuted His brethren—are sent into eternal fire.
• Millions more eliminated, completing the final purge of unbelievers
VI. Survivors Entering the Millennium
Scripture offers no exact figure, but only:
• The “sheep” nations (Matthew 25)
• The refined remnant of Israel—one-third (Zechariah 13:8–9)
Estimated survivors:
• Possibly 50 to 100 million worldwide, out of the original 8 billion
• Less than 1.5% of pre-Tribulation humanity
• Speculative—but profound
Summary Table: Estimated Global Death Toll During the Tribulation
Event | Approximate Deaths |
Fourth Seal (Rev 6:8) | 2 billion |
Sixth Trumpet (Rev 9:15–18) | 2 billion |
Bowl Judgments (Rev 16) | 1–2 billion |
Armageddon (Rev 19) | 0.2–0.5 billion |
Goat Judgment (Matt 25) | ~0.2–0.5 billion |
Total Estimated Deaths | 6–7 billion |
Conclusion
The Tribulation is not merely political or spiritual—it is a cataclysmic, global die-off unprecedented in human history. The vast majority of the earth’s population perishes through divine judgment, war, famine, disease, and cosmic upheaval.
Only a tiny remnant survives to repopulate the earth under Christ’s rule.
This is why the call is urgent:
“Today, if you hear His voice, do not harden your hearts.” — Hebrews 4:7
“Watch… and pray always, that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man.” — Luke 21:36
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Thanks Tom for this very sobering but biblically accurate report.
We recently heard from another believer who is convinced the WE ARE IN THE TRIBULATION RIGHT NOW. I think I will tell her to look at this math and let us know when when the fist 2 billion people die and we will reconsider her email.

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