Lots of People are Going to Die During the Great Tribulation

 A long-time reader recently did the math by following scripture as it reports what will happen during the Great Tribulation.

I've posted his findings below.

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Estimated Death Toll During the Tribulation

Let’s break down the estimated death toll over the 7-year Tribulation using a literal reading of Revelation, the prophets, and known population baselines. All figures assume a pre-Tribulation rapture has already removed the true Church (a small but unknown number). For modeling purposes, we’ll round the pre-rapture world population to 8 billion.

I. First Major Death Wave – Fourth Seal (Revelation 6:8)

“And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.”

¼ of humanity dies:

• 8 billion × 0.25 = 2 billion deaths

• This occurs early in the Tribulation, likely through war, famine, plague, and social collapse

• Cumulative death toll at this point: 2 billion

II. Second Major Death Wave – Sixth Trumpet (Revelation 9:15–18)

“…to slay the third part of men.”

This follows the initial ¼ who have already perished.

⅓ of the remaining 6 billion:

• 6 billion × 0.33 = 2 billion more deaths

• Likely caused by supernatural entities, war, or demonic judgments

• Cumulative death toll: 4 billion

By this point (Revelation 9), half of the global population is gone.

III. Bowl Judgments – Final Collapse (Revelation 16)

While exact numbers aren’t given, the plagues are catastrophic:

• Painful sores (Rev 16:2)

• Rivers turned to blood (Rev 16:4)

• Scorching global heat (Rev 16:8)

• Total darkness (Rev 16:10)

• Global earthquake and city collapse (Rev 16:18–19)

• 100-pound hailstones (Rev 16:21)

These conditions are un-survivable for vast regions. A conservative estimate:

• 1 to 2 billion additional deaths

• Total death toll: 5 to 6 billion

IV. Armageddon – Final Battle (Revelation 19:17–21)

“…the rest were slain with the sword that came out of the mouth of Him who sat on the horse.”

All remaining unbelieving military forces are killed at Christ’s return.

• Possibly 200 to 500 million deaths, depending on the scale of the global coalition

V. The Goats – Final Separation (Matthew 25:31–46)

All surviving Gentiles are judged at Christ’s return.

The “goats”—those who rejected Christ and persecuted His brethren—are sent into eternal fire.

• Millions more eliminated, completing the final purge of unbelievers

VI. Survivors Entering the Millennium

Scripture offers no exact figure, but only:

• The “sheep” nations (Matthew 25)

• The refined remnant of Israel—one-third (Zechariah 13:8–9)

Estimated survivors:

• Possibly 50 to 100 million worldwide, out of the original 8 billion

• Less than 1.5% of pre-Tribulation humanity

• Speculative—but profound

Summary Table: Estimated Global Death Toll During the Tribulation

Event	Approximate Deaths
Fourth Seal (Rev 6:8)	2 billion
Sixth Trumpet (Rev 9:15–18)	2 billion
Bowl Judgments (Rev 16)	1–2 billion
Armageddon (Rev 19)	0.2–0.5 billion
Goat Judgment (Matt 25)	~0.2–0.5 billion
Total Estimated Deaths	6–7 billion

Conclusion

The Tribulation is not merely political or spiritual—it is a cataclysmic, global die-off unprecedented in human history. The vast majority of the earth’s population perishes through divine judgment, war, famine, disease, and cosmic upheaval.

Only a tiny remnant survives to repopulate the earth under Christ’s rule.

This is why the call is urgent:

“Today, if you hear His voice, do not harden your hearts.” — Hebrews 4:7

“Watch… and pray always, that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man.” — Luke 21:36

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Thanks Tom for this very sobering but biblically accurate report.

We recently heard from another believer who is convinced the WE ARE IN THE TRIBULATION RIGHT NOW.  I think I will tell her to look at this math and let us know when when the fist 2 billion people die and we will reconsider her email.